Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, February 5th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory for the first time in a week following a couple of headlines that point to weakness in the employment sector. Stocks are helping the cause with sizable losses in the major indexes. The Dow is down 352 points while the Nasdaq has lost 304 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (4.23%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday increase in rates yesterday afternoon, you should see a larger improvement this morning to erase Wednesday’s late weakness in bonds and reflect this morning’s gains.

12/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.23%

352

Dow

49,148

304

NASDAQ

22,600

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Last week’s unemployment figures were posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing 231,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made. This was higher than the 212,000 that was expected and a noticeable increase from the previous week’s 209,000 initial filings. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, making this report good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

Last night’s speech from Fed Governor Cook didn’t give us any major surprises. She indicated she is more concerned about rising inflation than the softening labor market and feels the Fed should take a wait and see approach before lowering key short-term interest rates further. Since her stance was well known before this speech, we haven’t seen the bond market or mortgage pricing react to the event. There is another speech tomorrow with Vice Chair Jefferson at noon. He will be speaking in Washington DC with a topic related to the economic outlook and inflation. If there is a reaction to his speech tomorrow, it will come during midday trading.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

Because the partial government shutdown earlier this week delayed the release of January’s Employment report, we only have one piece of data being posted tomorrow morning. February’s preliminary February reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index is a measurement of consumer confidence that is thought to indicate consumer willingness to spend. Analysts are expecting to see a decline from January's 56.4, meaning surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than last month. A lower reading than 55.5 would mean consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future than previously thought, restricting economic growth. The lower the reading, the better the news for rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.