Monday, June 29th
Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly with little to drive trading today. Stocks are showing early gains of 276 points in the Dow and 178 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (4.37%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Friday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement Friday afternoon, you should see an increase of the same size this morning.
1/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.37%
276
Dow
52,152
178
NASDAQ
25,475
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Low
Neutral
There is no relevant economic data coming today. The calendar begins tomorrow with a single report that is moderately important, but gets much busier from there. Fortunately, we are seeing a muted response to this weekend’s Iran-related headlines. Last night’s announcement that both sides have agreed to stand down likely averted a much stronger negative reaction this morning.
High
Unknown
The rest of this holiday-shortened week has five monthly economic reports scheduled to be posted, including two that are considered to be highly important. In addition to the data, there is also a public speaking event with the new Fed Chairman midweek. Obviously, headlines from the Middle East may also have an impact on rates, especially if attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz resume.
Medium
Unknown
June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will kick-off this week’s scheduled activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. The CCI comes from the Conference Board (a New York-based business research group) and measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident about their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so rising confidence can contribute to overall economic growth. If it shows a sizable increase from last month, we can expect to see a negative reaction in bonds and mortgage rates. Forecasts are predicting a reading of 94.5, up from last month's 93.1. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage pricing.
High
Unknown
Overall, the governmental Employment report makes Thursday the best candidate for most active day for rates this week ahead of Friday’s holiday, but Wednesday may also bring a noticeable change if the ISM index surprises the markets and Fed Chairman Warsh says something unexpected in his speaking engagement. With several events scheduled that have the potential to move rates noticeably this week, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.