Monday, August 10th
Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following weekend news from the Middle East that has oil prices ticking higher. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 114 points and the Nasdaq up 8 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (4.68%), which should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point from Friday’s early pricing.
10/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.68%
114
Dow
53,922
8
NASDAQ
26,698
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Negative
There is no relevant economic data set for release today, the only day of the week without something for the markets to digest. This morning’s early weakness in bonds comes after Iran stated over the weekend that many conditions must be met before the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened to shipping. Their comments contradicted the theory that a peace deal may be near, leading to higher oil prices and renewed inflation concerns to drive trading today.
Medium
Unknown
The remainder of the week has five pieces of monthly economic data scheduled for release, three of which are considered to be highly influential. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that may come into play during afternoon hours midweek. We will also be watching for further headlines from the Middle East to affect the financial markets and mortgage pricing. News that points towards a peace deal and the free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz should help improve bonds and lower mortgage rates.
Medium
Unknown
July's Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors will start this week’s scheduled activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This report covers a high percentage of all home sales in the U.S., but usually does not have a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts. It is expected to show a slight decline from June's sales, meaning the housing sector softened modestly last month. A weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely. Accordingly, good news for rates would be a noticeable decline in sales.
High
Unknown
Overall, Wednesday is likely to be the most active day for rates due to the importance the Consumer Price Index (CPI) carries and the afternoon Treasury auction, but Thursday and Friday’s economic data also has the potential to cause a noticeable revision in rates. The calmest day could be tomorrow since the housing report is the least influential of this week’s monthly releases. We are expecting to see plenty of movement in rates this week, especially the middle and latter days. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.