Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, August 16th

This week has only three monthly economic reports scheduled with none of them coming close to the importance of several of last week’s reports. In addition to the data, there is a Treasury auction and FOMC minutes release midweek and a handful of Fed speaking engagements. We will also be watching for headlines from the Middle East, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices that appear to be moving higher. While the week should be calmer for rates than the past couple have been, we still could see a day or two with a noticeable change.

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Bonds

Market Closed

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Dow

Market Closed

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NASDAQ

Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Unknown

Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

Tomorrow has nothing scheduled that we need to be concerned with. Activities will begin Tuesday morning when July's Housing Starts report is posted at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us a little insight about the new home portion of the housing sector and future mortgage credit demand. It usually doesn't cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Analysts expect the report to show a decline in new home groundbreakings to point to more weakness in the sector. The lower the number of starts, the better the news for the bond market.

Medium

Unknown

Industrial Production

Also set for a Tuesday morning release is July's Industrial Production report that measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. The 9:15 AM ET posting is expected to show a 0.3% rise from June's level. A decline in production would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would signal manufacturing sector weakness. Broader economic growth is much more difficult when manufacturing activity is slipping.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Wednesday lacks the release of any relevant economic data, but we get a couple of events to watch during afternoon trading. First will be the results announcement of the day's 20-year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was strong, we could see the broader bond market improve and mortgage rates move slightly lower during afternoon trading. On the other hand, a lackluster interest, indicating a waning appetite for longer-term securities, may pressure bonds and lead to a slight upward revision to rates before the end of the day. Last week’s 10-year Note auction drew a stronger response than the 30-year Bond sale did, so it will be interesting to see how this week’s sale goes.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Next up is the 2:00 PM ET release of the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. The key points traders are looking for are discussions amongst Fed members about inflation, the future of the employment sector, and how the Iran war may affect the Fed's plans for key short-term interest rates. The markets are currently predicting the Fed will raise short-term rates sometime this year to help push inflation lower than remains stubbornly above the Fed’s goal rate of 2.00%. If the minutes indicate that rate hike may be coming sooner than later, we may see a negative reaction in bonds that leads to an upward move in mortgage pricing.

Medium

Unknown

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

The week's final release is July's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET Thursday. This Conference Board index attempts to predict future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase from June's reading, meaning the indicators are pointing towards flat economic growth over the next several months. A larger decline would be favorable news for mortgage pricing because bonds are more appealing to investors during weaker economic activity.

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Unknown

none

Overall, no day stands out as a clear choice for most important of the week since there is no highly important data scheduled for release. We are expecting to see minor revisions multiple days with little or no change in rates the others. However, due to the current geopolitical environment and the ongoing conflicting news about the ability of shipping to move through Strait of Hormuz, we could see an unexpected headline cause a strong reaction in the markets and mortgage rates. Therefore, it would still be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.