Wednesday, February 11th
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following unexpectedly strong employment news. Stocks are reacting negatively to the data also, causing the Dow and Nasdaq to lose 101 and 110 points respectively. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (4.17%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
7/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.17%
101
Dow
50,086
110
NASDAQ
22,992
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
High
Negative
This morning’s big news was the release of January’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. It revealed the employment sector was stronger last month than many had thought. Of the three major headlines from the report, all of them are unfavorable for bonds and mortgage rates. The unemployment rate slipped from 4.4% to 4.3% while 130,000 new jobs were added to the economy. Forecasts had the unemployment rate holding at 4.4% and 65,000 new jobs. Even average earnings came in stronger than expected with a 0.4% monthly rise and a 3.7% annual pace, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and 3.6%. Accordingly, the report is clearly bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Medium
Negative
January’s Employment data could prevent the Fed from cutting key short-term rates again in the near future. Their basis for making the three quarter-point cuts late last year was to support the employment sector that was showing signs of weakening. They made those cuts despite concerns about rising inflation that remains stubbornly higher than the Fed’s 2.0% goal. If employment appears to be gaining strength, there is no need to lower key rates since it could fuel an increase in inflation.
Medium
Unknown
Today also has the first of this week’s two relevant Treasury auctions. 10-year Treasury Notes are being sold today, followed by 30-year Bonds tomorrow. These sales will help us determine if there is currently a good demand for long-term debt from investors. This is relevant because mortgage rates are based on long-term mortgage bonds. If today’s sale attracts a strong interest from investors, we should see the bond market improve and mortgage rates revise lower after results are announced at 1:00 PM ET. However, a poor demand could lead to an upward revision in rates before the end of the day. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow with the 30-year Bond auction.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow brings us two moderately important economic releases before Friday’s extremely influential inflation report. First up tomorrow will be the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show approximately 222,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made, down from the previous week’s 231,000 initial filings. Declining claims are a sign of a strengthening employment sector. Therefore, the larger the number tomorrow, the better the news for mortgage pricing.
Medium
Unknown
January's Existing Home Sales report will also be released tomorrow, but at 10:00 AM ET. This report gives us details about the housing sector. The National Association of Realtors is expected to say home resales slipped last month despite a dip in mortgage rates. Since long-term securities, such as mortgage bonds, tend to thrive during weaker economic conditions, softer home sales would be good news for mortgage rates. However, this report usually does not draw a strong reaction in the markets and often has just a minimal impact on rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.