Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, August 24th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite weekend geopolitical headlines that are unfriendly to bonds. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 109 points and the Nasdaq down 256 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (4.70%), but weakness late Friday should keep this morning’s rates close to unchanged from Friday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday increase late Friday, you should see an improvement this morning of about the same size.

8/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.70%

109

Dow

53,386

256

NASDAQ

25,923

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Negative

Tariff News

There is no relevant economic data being released today. This morning’s positive open in bonds is likely a result of a decline in oil prices that they have been so sensitive to. Declining oil prices means lower energy bills and lower costs at the gas pump that ease some inflation worries. This is offsetting the weekend news of a new front on the tariff war with Canada and additional sanctions against Iran that some feel will lead to Iran lashing out at U.S. allies with military action and/or attacks on shipping.

High

Unknown

None

The rest of the week is quite busy with six monthly and quarterly economic reports scheduled that may have an impact on mortgage rates, in addition to a couple of shorter-term Treasury auctions and an annual international central bank event that may yield some headlines. We will also be watching for headlines from the Middle East that can easily influence bond trading and mortgage pricing.

Medium

Unknown

Consumer Confidence Index

This week’s scheduled activities begin tomorrow when the Conference Board posts their August Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM. This index measures consumer sentiment about their own financial and employment situations, giving us an idea about consumer willingness to spend. A noticeable decline in confidence would indicate that surveyed consumers probably will not make a large purchase in the immediate future, making broader economic growth more difficult. The index is expected to come in at 90.6, which would be a slight decline from July's 90.8. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Low

Unknown

New Home Sales

Also set to be posted late tomorrow morning is July's New Home Sales report that will give us a small indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It tracks only a small portion of all home sales with an overwhelming majority of U.S. sales covered in the Existing Home Sales report that was released earlier this month. Current forecasts show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes last month, pointing to more housing weakness. A large decline in sales would make the data favorable for mortgage rates even though we should see only a minor reaction to the report at best, regardless of what it shows.

Medium

Unknown

Misc Fed

Overall, it should be an active week for the markets and mortgage pricing. Wednesday is the most important day for rates due to the release of three big economic reports, but we may also see a big move Friday if Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech reveals any big surprises. Thursday is a good candidate for calmest day, assuming nothing unexpected happens. We are expecting to see the biggest move in rates the middle days of the week. Since there are so many potential influences in the financial and geopolitical arenas right now, it would be prudent to keep a close eye on them if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.