Sunday, December 28th
The final week of the year brings us little that is expected to influence mortgage rates. We have another holiday-altered trading schedule due to the New Year's Day holiday. It is quite possible to see some movement in bonds as market participants make year-end trades to close out positions, but the impact on mortgage rates should be fairly minimal. The week starts tomorrow with nothing of importance scheduled.
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Bonds
Market Closed
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Dow
Market Closed
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NASDAQ
Market Closed
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Unknown
Tuesday has one of the week’s two relevant events when the minutes from this month's FOMC meeting are released at 2:00 PM ET. They will give market participants information on the Fed's thought process while deciding to make a quarter-point reduction to key short-term interest rates. They will show discussion and concerns regarding inflation, employment strength and future plans for monetary policy moves. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what they show. The mid-afternoon release means they won't affect the markets or mortgage rates until later in the day. The last FOMC meeting was followed by revised Fed predictions and a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell, so the possibility of seeing something unexpected is somewhat minimal.
Medium
Unknown
Last week’s unemployment update will be released early Wednesday morning instead of the usual Thursday release due to the holiday schedule. It is expected to show 220,000 new claims were made for jobless benefits, up from the previous week’s 214,000 initial filings. Rising claims for benefits are a sign of weakness in the employment sector. Therefore, a larger than predicted number would be considered favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.
Low
Unknown
Bonds will trade until 2:00 PM ET Wednesday ahead of the New Year's Day holiday Thursday and will reopen for regular trading Friday. Stocks do not show an early closing Wednesday but will be closed Thursday. Don't' be surprised to see a bit of volatility in the bond market early Wednesday while mortgage rates remain relatively flat. This is because many traders are likely to be home for another extended holiday weekend, leaving a reduced staff in the office.
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Unknown
Overall, we should see some movement in the bond market as the year comes to a close. That likely will not translate into an equal amount of movement in mortgage pricing though. No day stands out as a clear choice for most important for rates. The calmest day may be Friday unless we get some unexpected headlines. While we should see rates remain within a tight range this week, it is still possible to get a surprise move without notice. Accordingly, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.