Wednesday, October 21th
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite little in terms of news to drive trading. Stocks are mixed yet again with the Dow down 18 points and the Nasdaq up 102 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (5.09%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
3/32
Bonds
30 yr - 5.09%
18
Dow
52,477
102
NASDAQ
26,527
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Low
Neutral
There is no relevant economic data set for release today. We will likely see bonds fluctuate a little from their current levels until we get some headlines that are worthy of a reaction. Mortgage rates should follow the same pattern for the next day or so, unless something unexpected happens. We do have an afternoon event today that could cause a minor revision in pricing, but it is not something we need to be too concerned about.
Medium
Unknown
The results of today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction will be made available at 1:00 PM ET. If they indicate there was a strong demand for the securities, we may see bonds improve a little during afternoon trading. At best we can hope to see a minor improvement in rates, but these types of auctions are relevant because mortgage rates are based on long-term debt also. However, if the results hint that investor demand in long-term debt is waning, we could see an upward revision to mortgage pricing before the end of the day.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of two minor pieces of data. First up will be the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET that is expected to show 200,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made last week. This would be a modest increase from the previous week’s revised 199,000 initial filings. Rising claims are a sign that the employment sector is softening, meaning a much higher than predicted number would be considered favorable for bonds and mortgage rates. Since this is just a weekly snapshot, we aren’t expecting it to have a strong influence on tomorrow’s rates.
Medium
Unknown
The Conference Board will give us their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for September at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index attempts to predict future economic activity over the next three to six months, but since it comes from a business research group and not a governmental agency it usually has a minimal impact on rates. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.2% from August's reading, meaning they are predicting weaker economic activity over the next several months. A larger decline would be favorable news for mortgage pricing because bonds tend to be more appealing to investors during times of slower economic growth.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.